Forum Navigation

New Posts

Search


Go Back   Reel-Time Forums > Fly Fishing Topics > Conservation and Ecology

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-20-2008, 12:25 PM
Mark Cahill's Avatar
Mark Cahill Mark Cahill is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Feb 1996
Location: Manchaug, MA
Posts: 4,054
Exclamation Striped Bass Updated Stock Status from ASMFC

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, AUGUST 20, 2008
PRESS CONTACT, TINA BERGER 202/289-6400


Updated Biological Reference Points for Atlantic Striped Bass Confirm
Previously Released Stock Status


Alexandria, VA The Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board approved new estimates of the biological reference points established in Amendment 6, as well as improved estimates of female spawning stock biomass for 1982-2006 (see accompanying Table 1 and Figures 1 & 2). This action was taken in response to recommendations of the 46th Stock Assessment Review Committee, which reviewed the 2007 striped bass stock assessment.

With these updates, the stock status of Atlantic striped bass remains not overfished and not experiencing overfishing. The new estimate of female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in 2006 (40,639 metric tons) is above the new threshold and target levels (30,000 mt and 37,500 mt, respectively). The
2006 estimate of fishing mortality (F) from the statistical catch at age model (0.31) is below the new threshold of 0.34. Retrospective estimates of F from the statistical catch at age (SCA) model, as well as tag-based estimates of F, indicate that the 2006 fishing mortality is likely below the target F rate, which remains at 0.30.




In its review of the 2007 stock assessment, the Review Committee recommended that the Striped Bass Technical Committee reconsider the ratio of male to female fish used in the estimation of female SSB. The Review Committee also recommended that the Technical Committee re-estimate the fishing mortality threshold based on data from the new preferred assessment model (the SCA model), and that the female SSB target and threshold be linked to the new assessment. The estimates of these reference points for Amendment 6 were based on data from the 2001 virtual population analysis stock assessment. Implementing these changes to the biological reference points does not change their definitions, but rather updates them with new data and estimates of stock size.

The Technical Committee undertook the recommended work. Based on biological sampling data, new estimates of the sex ratio at age were developed, resulting in the improved estimates of female SSB for 1982-2006. Included in this time series was a new estimate of female SSB in 1995 (29,985 mt), the year the Atlantic coast stock was declared restored, and the value upon which the management program female SSB threshold is based. Given that Amendment 6 set the female SSB target as 125 percent of the female SSB threshold, the Technical Committee recommended an updated female SSB threshold of 30,000 mt and an updated female SSB target of 37,500 mt.

The Review Committee's recommendation to update the F threshold meant re-estimating FMSY, the fishing mortality rate that allows for maximum sustainable yield. Using the new estimates of female SSB and age-1 recruitment from the 2007 assessment, the Technical Committee adopted a model averaging approach to account for uncertainty in the stock-recruitment relationship. The resulting estimate of FMSY was 0.34, which the Technical Committee recommended to the Board for use. The F target in Amendment 6 of 0.30 remains the same because it was not based specifically on estimates of stock size, but is based on the objective to maintain an age structure that provides adequate spawning potential to sustain long-term abundance of striped bass populations.


Figure 1. Atlantic Striped Bass Female Spawning Stock Biomass Estimates and Biological Reference Points Amendment 6 defines the female SSB threshold as the 1995 level of female SSB, when the stock was declared restored, and the female SSB target as 125 percent of the female SSB threshold. The old female SSB threshold and target are based on data from the 2001 virtual population analysis, while the new female SSB threshold and target are based on data from the 2007 statistical catch at age (SCA) model, incorporating an empirical (based on
data) sex ratio. Both sets of female SSB estimates are from the 2007 SCA model; however, the new set incorporates the same empirical sex ratio.




Figure 2. Atlantic Striped Bass Fishing Mortality Estimates and Biological Reference Points Amendment 6 defines the F threshold as FMSY, and the F target based on management objectives. The old F threshold is based on data from the 2001 virtual population analysis, while the new F threshold is based on data from the 2007 statistical catch at age (SCA) model. Estimates from the SCA model were preferred by the 46th Stock Assessment Review Committee for comparison to biological reference points. However, estimates from the tag-based catch equation (CE) model, as well as retrospective estimates of F from the SCA model, are used to indicate that the terminal year F estimate from the SCA model is likely overestimated and will decline below the F target with the addition of future years of data.


For more information, please contact Nichola Meserve, FMP Coordinator, at
(202) 289-6400 or nmeserve@asmfc.org.

*************************
Tina Berger
Public Affairs Specialist
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission
1444 I Street. NW, Sixth Floor
Washington, DC 20005
Phone: (202)289-6400
FAX: (202)289-6051
Email: tberger@asmfc.org
www.asmfc.org

ASMFC Vision: Healthy, self-sustaining populations of all Atlantic coast fish species or successful restoration well in progress by the year 2015.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	pic06618.gif
Views:	846
Size:	11.1 KB
ID:	12875   Click image for larger version

Name:	pic13458.gif
Views:	882
Size:	11.4 KB
ID:	12876   Click image for larger version

Name:	pic25200.gif
Views:	727
Size:	5.5 KB
ID:	12877  
Attached Files
File Type: pdf pr18StripedBassRefPts.pdf (39.9 KB, 266 views)
__________________
Mark
________________
Mark Cahill
Publisher
Reel-Time.com
Read my blog at AllThingsCahill.com
1 2 3 4 5 6
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-20-2008, 03:01 PM
Nelly's Avatar
Nelly Nelly is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: South shore
Posts: 503
Is there an english version?

"Figure 2. Atlantic Striped Bass Fishing Mortality Estimates and Biological Reference Points Amendment 6 defines the F threshold as FMSY, and the F target based on management objectives. The old F threshold is based on data from the 2001 virtual population analysis, while the new F threshold is based on data from the 2007 statistical catch at age (SCA) model."
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-21-2008, 09:36 AM
Mattb Mattb is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Before Nov. 1999
Location: ME
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelly View Post
Is there an english version?
Disclaimer- I'm not a fisheries guy - I'm still learning this stuff myself, so don't take this as gospel.

Management-speak to english:
Fmsy is the mortality rate associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield

Ftarget is the mortality rate the managers are shooting for. This is the number that they use to set the bag limits/quotas.
SSB is Spawning Stock Biomass - the poundage of mature, breeding fish that're out there.

Mortality:
The good news: By moving Fmsy to .34 they've acknowledged that the science says we're fishing very close to maximum sustainable yield (MSY)- A lot of folks (me included) feel that we're actually fishing well over MSY, but to have them move in the direction they did is not a bad sign.

The bad news: Despite adjusting Fmsy almost 20% (from .41 to .34) they're saying that it's not necessary to change Ftarget. So, they've acknowledged that we can't get away with taking as many stripers as they thought, and that the science is pretty volatile (20% adjustment this year), yet they didn't take the next logical step and reduce the mortality...

SSB:
The adjusted the SSB threshold (the lower limit that triggers mandatory action by the managers) a lot - from 14,000 mt to 30,000 mt - that means they think we need more than double the number of mature fish they thought we needed in order to have a sustainable population. It also means the science shows us being a whole lot closer to the threshold than they previously thought. Again, with science this volatile, you'd think they'd have moved to a somewhat more conservative mortality target in order to provide a bit of a cushion in case they have to make more adjustments in light of the next round of new science.
__________________
The plural of anecdote is data
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-21-2008, 11:32 AM
Onshore's Avatar
Onshore Onshore is offline
Veteran Reel-Timer
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: On the Indian River Lagoon, Melbourne, Florida
Posts: 4,309
Matt,

That is an excellent report and translation to realspeak. Best I've ever seen.
__________________
XGloucesterman

This and other original paintings and fine art prints of fishing and marine subjects may be seen on my website
http://bill-hubbard.fineartamerica.com/
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-21-2008, 01:08 PM
gseries69's Avatar
gseries69 gseries69 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wiliston Vermont
Posts: 537
Does this mean that over all they are looking to change the current trends? It seems that they have acknowledged that there is a problem in a couple of key metrics and have taken steps to improve them by raising the targets. Will this relate in to a change in the quotas and regulations?
__________________
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the things you did. So throw off the bowlines. Explore. Dream. Discover." - Mark Twain, 1879
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-21-2008, 01:43 PM
Mattb Mattb is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Before Nov. 1999
Location: ME
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by gseries69 View Post
Does this mean that over all they are looking to change the current trends? It seems that they have acknowledged that there is a problem in a couple of key metrics and have taken steps to improve them by raising the targets. Will this relate in to a change in the quotas and regulations?
From the press release:
Quote:
The F target in Amendment 6 of 0.30 remains the same because it was not based specifically on estimates of stock size, but is based on the objective to maintain an age structure that provides adequate spawning potential to sustain long-term abundance of striped bass populations
This sentence is their justification for doing nothing- at least for now. Given the pressure out there to maintain the status quo, I can't imagine anything happening without more science to justify a reduction in mortality. Mortality has been trending upwards and SSB has been trending downwards for a couple of years now, so it won't be long until we hit a threshold or two and their hand is forced.

An optimist could look at the fact that they moved Fmsy down significantly and moved the SSB threshold up and see that they're laying the groundwork for a reduction in harvest - I don't know that I'd necessarily read things this way, but it's certainly a possibility.

-Matt
__________________
The plural of anecdote is data
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 08-22-2008, 10:00 AM
Doug Jowett's Avatar
Doug Jowett Doug Jowett is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Brunswick, Maine
Posts: 503
They are setting the stage to open the EEZ in the future. They were not happy with Bush closing the EEZ via his pen. They are very sneaky. Their science keeps changing formulas - doesn't that tell you something?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 08-23-2008, 06:03 AM
Onshore's Avatar
Onshore Onshore is offline
Veteran Reel-Timer
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: On the Indian River Lagoon, Melbourne, Florida
Posts: 4,309
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Jowett View Post
They are setting the stage to open the EEZ in the future. They were not happy with Bush closing the EEZ via his pen. They are very sneaky. Their science keeps changing formulas - doesn't that tell you something?
Doug,

Best get your facts straight.
Bush did not close the eez, NMFS closed it 6-7 years ago.
Bush banned commercially taking Stripers in the eez this past June.
So, what's wrong with reopening the eez for recreational taking of Stripers now ?
It was a prime fishing area for many of us before the NMFS closure.
__________________
XGloucesterman

This and other original paintings and fine art prints of fishing and marine subjects may be seen on my website
http://bill-hubbard.fineartamerica.com/

Last edited by Onshore; 08-23-2008 at 06:06 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 08-23-2008, 07:25 AM
Mattb Mattb is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Before Nov. 1999
Location: ME
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onshore View Post
So, what's wrong with reopening the eez for recreational taking of Stripers now ?
It was a prime fishing area for many of us before the NMFS closure.
I'm not Doug, but I'll weigh in with why I think opening the EEZ is a very bad idea-

Stripers right now are having a rough time of it. The official science suggests that they're not quite overfished just yet, but even the ASMFC seems to realize we're getting awful close. If you actually listen to the folks on the water every day, the fishing is bad and getting worse north of the cape. Last year was the worst year I'd ever had in Maine, until this year, which was an order of magnitude worse. I don't even want to think about how bad it's likely to be next year.

Opening the EEZ would result in a large spike in striper mortality, particularly among mature fish. With SSB already getting close to the threshold based on the new numbers - that's the last thing we need.

When ASMFC manages the stripers into another crash, we're going to need those fish that're out in the EEZ to rebuild the population again.
__________________
The plural of anecdote is data
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 08-23-2008, 08:04 AM
Doug Jowett's Avatar
Doug Jowett Doug Jowett is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Brunswick, Maine
Posts: 503
Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onshore View Post
Doug,

Best get your facts straight.
Bush did not close the eez, NMFS closed it 6-7 years ago.
Bush banned commercially taking Stripers in the eez this past June.
So, what's wrong with reopening the eez for recreational taking of Stripers now ?
It was a prime fishing area for many of us before the NMFS closure.
Bottom line is - the EEZ is closed to all fishing for striped bass. I believe this is good use of the concept of MPA's (now that will stir the pot) for the benefit of the fish, not man's quest of the fish. Many have known for years that big stripers summer in federal waters and many so called commercial striper fishermen used their licenses to slaughter breeding striped bass in those waters. The striped bass in the EEZ should be protected forever in my mind in order to secure an insurance policy for future collapses. With the Ches. Bay not being the striped bass production factory it once was, we need buffers to avoid disaster. Old thinking isn't going to take us into the future of a healthy striped bass stock. There is more pressure on striped bass today than existed prior to the last crash. We have already fished down the supposed "recovered striper stocks". Anyone actually fishing the waters of the northeast coast knows there is a BIG problem and I have been warning people for 5 years now. No one wants to listen and those who make a living off striped bass aren't willing to speak up because they don't want it known that striped bass are in trouble. Reading reports from ASFMC just doesn't tell the real story as their data is always at least two years old and they keep changing their science. We need a rebellion to stop the poor fisheries management established by the Atlantic States Fisheries Management Council which is manipulated by commercial interests. My question is - is there anyone out there who agrees?

Last edited by Doug Jowett; 08-23-2008 at 08:26 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 08-23-2008, 11:43 AM
Mark Cahill's Avatar
Mark Cahill Mark Cahill is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Feb 1996
Location: Manchaug, MA
Posts: 4,054
Too add a little more to the discussion

John McMurray weighs in on his Reel-Time Blog on the issue:

http://www.reel-time.com/blogs/mcmurray/

Quote:
While indeed I would like to see more precaution exercised with the striped bass fishery (e.g. higher size, mandatory circlehooks in bait fisheries, the banning of Yo-Yoing etc.), managers are much more apt to concentrate their resources on fisheries which are truly in trouble and in which overfishing continues, and leave striped bass alone for the time being. And, if readers think the commercial fishing community and/or the charter/headboat fleet are going to voluntarily agree to stricter limits when there is no science indicating that they should be making such cutbacks, then they are sadly mistaken, especially in light of the hits such folks have taken on summer flounder, black sea-bass, scup etc.
Read the whole post before comment, please...
__________________
Mark
________________
Mark Cahill
Publisher
Reel-Time.com
Read my blog at AllThingsCahill.com
1 2 3 4 5 6
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 08-23-2008, 01:22 PM
Onshore's Avatar
Onshore Onshore is offline
Veteran Reel-Timer
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: On the Indian River Lagoon, Melbourne, Florida
Posts: 4,309
John makes some excellent and realistic points, Mark.
__________________
XGloucesterman

This and other original paintings and fine art prints of fishing and marine subjects may be seen on my website
http://bill-hubbard.fineartamerica.com/
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 08-25-2008, 10:24 AM
Kernel Kernel is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Southern Mass
Posts: 26
Quote:
John McMurray wrote:

I also think in large part angler’s attitudes have changed, mostly because of the anit-enviro propaganda perpetuated by the local fishing press. Because of the decidedly anti-conservation movement by a New Jersey-based coalition of commercial and recreational fishing industries to weaken the Magnuson Steven Act, any sort of precaution these days is looked on as “alarmist” and “radical” or “elitist.”
It is refreshing to see more and more journalists calling it like-it-is, as Mr. McMurray has done here.

Indeed, it is dismaying at what passes for recreational advocacy these days.

Last edited by Kernel; 08-25-2008 at 12:02 PM.. Reason: Simplified
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 08-26-2008, 12:09 PM
Onshore's Avatar
Onshore Onshore is offline
Veteran Reel-Timer
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: On the Indian River Lagoon, Melbourne, Florida
Posts: 4,309
Anyone concerned that Striped bass might be in trouble should contact ASMFC and get a copy of their latest news release dated August 20, 2008. It explains the latest changes in biological reference points to the management plan and summarizes the latest Female Spawning Stock Biomass estimates and Fishing Mortality estimates. Goto www.asmfc.org

The conclusion is prety sucinct - with those updates, the stock status of Atlantic striped bass continues to be not overfished and not currently experiencing overfishing.

Sure, some areas in New England have not had their "traditional" good fishing the past few years but, other areas, especially New York and New Jersey are having phenominal banner years.

The Atlantic Coast is a big area and stripers tend to move around a lot. While you want your favorite area to have great fishing, as do I; it just isn't going to be a steady thing from year to year to year. I remember years back in the 40s and 50s when the Cape Ann area was booming for a few years and only few fish on the beaches except for the Spring and Fall runs.
__________________
XGloucesterman

This and other original paintings and fine art prints of fishing and marine subjects may be seen on my website
http://bill-hubbard.fineartamerica.com/
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-19-2008, 04:37 AM
Doug Jowett's Avatar
Doug Jowett Doug Jowett is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Brunswick, Maine
Posts: 503
Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattb View Post
From the press release:


This sentence is their justification for doing nothing- at least for now. Given the pressure out there to maintain the status quo, I can't imagine anything happening without more science to justify a reduction in mortality. Mortality has been trending upwards and SSB has been trending downwards for a couple of years now, so it won't be long until we hit a threshold or two and their hand is forced.

An optimist could look at the fact that they moved Fmsy down significantly and moved the SSB threshold up and see that they're laying the groundwork for a reduction in harvest - I don't know that I'd necessarily read things this way, but it's certainly a possibility.

-Matt
Matt has nailed the issue in the two paragraphs noted. Good work Matt
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Native Kennebec Stripers Ian New England 6 11-09-2010 08:58 AM
Brothers reel in Cape Ann's largest striped bass - 51.85 pounds got fish? New England 14 06-22-2007 11:12 PM
A Quiet Isle Where Striped Bass Reign Jacob K. New England 1 10-22-2004 12:21 PM
To anyone involved with Stripers Forever flatts1 Conservation and Ecology 5 04-16-2003 11:34 AM
Read This TomTero New England 7 08-25-2000 08:43 PM



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:00 PM.




vBulletin skin developed by: eXtremepixels
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.


Copyright 1995-2013, Cahill Digital